Originally Posted by
Moonbeam
Does anybody really think there is an actual pilot shortage anymore? Is hiring still going crazy with airlines unable to fill classes? Seems like the boom is already over. Which usually means they will change the age, followed by furloughs. Same old boom bust cycle.
I think the peak retirements are 2022-2028, but the wave will continue into the next decade.
A bunch of student starts came out of the woodwork before and after covid, but I suspect that most everybody age 25-45 who's so inclined is already in the system or will be soon.
Once those folks shake out of the tree, they're going to be waiting for kids to grow up to finish school and that can't be surged. They can however use various tools to encourage, incentivize, and recruit
... that will get them some additional bodies. Especually if the pay for primary training.
But I suspect they still might be in for challenges. Not the legacies necessarily, except for their regional feed, but other sectors of aviation who are losing people left and right.
Youth tend not to be attracted to aviation for it's own sake in this era... some of them will come around after a few years of soul-crushing white-collar grind, but you have to wait for them to learn the hard way. Plus many of them *really* like to smoke...