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Old 10-02-2023 | 05:39 AM
  #13780  
Bluedriver
The REAL Bluedriver
 
Joined: Sep 2011
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From: Airbus Capt
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Originally Posted by Mach10
We are saying the same thing, but my point was that if you wait say 2 years to convert $10k of JB 401k to Roth, you'll likely pay MORE in taxes (assuming you have gains on those JB dollars; lately, it might well have been a loss).

Personally, I'd MUCH rather pay taxes on it today than 15-20 years in the future as I withdraw the funds. No one knows what the taxes will be in 2043, but the odds of them being higher are pretty solid.
That's not a terrible argument, but possibly too simplistic. For one thing taxes have been much higher in the past, with the US at one time having a top income rate of 70%, so taxes don't necessarily only go up over time.

But many other factors are much more important to at least consider. Most people have a lower income in retirement than they do when working. Super savers like you and I might be the exception, but it's true most of the time. Since taxes are paid on marginal income, most already fall into a lower tax bracket (lower effective tax rate) in retirement than they do working. Because taxes are paid on marginal income, the money you convert today from traditional to Roth is by definition taxed at your highest marginal income rate. It's income placed on top of all your W2 income from airlinering and whatever else. So you are paying taxes on that money today, at your highest rate. On the other hand, when you start withdrawing traditional funds in the future during retirement, each year you start withdrawing at the lowest marginal rate and your effective tax rate only goes as high as the level of money you pull out each year.

And of course there is a risk that Congress someday adds a tax penalty/requirement to Roth accounts, or Roth accounts of a certain size to pay down the national debt, or fund social security/Medicare. We just don't know. You could pay all these top rate taxes now, only to have to pay Roth taxes of some kind in the future.

I don't know the answer, or best strategy. I like the idea of having some in both types of accounts. In a given retirement year, I can start withdrawing from traditional accounts at the lowest marginal tax rate, and when those withdrawals start to push into higher tax brackets (higher effective tax rate) I can start pulling more from the Roth funds that hopefully won't have taxes due and won't raise my effective tax rate further.

Still curious to hear other perspectives and ideas though. These are just my thoughts.
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