Originally Posted by
Andy
You, on the other hand, seem to indicate that there's no way that this conflict could cause a worldwide economic collapse, as Ukraine is (in your mind) much more of a problem and there has been little negative impact from that conflict. You have ignored my Strait of Hormuz comments so I assume you see no risk of it being shut down by Iran. Ignorance is bliss.
The SoH has long been considered a linchpin of the global economy, and is the only leverage the Iran has over much of anything.
Their ability to *effectively* close the strait to commerce is not in question. All they really have to do is toss a few mines (or mine-looking objects) in the water, and Lloyds yanks the SoH insurance from all the VLCC/ULCC operators, ships drop anchor, and the oil stops. It will take a while to sort that out... sink the IR navy, destroy Bandar Abas, scud hunt asymmetric mine-laying caps, sweep the mines, get everything moving again.