Originally Posted by
contrails
Foolish logic.
Despite your UPS odds being perhaps correct using those hypothetical numbers, not all of the applications are legitimate or competitive and the people that have submitted those applications have also submitted them to many other companies.
If you were to take the resumes received at FDX, UPS, SWA, DAL, CAL, NWA, NJA, Cathay, Emirates, et cetera I am willing to be you would find A LOT of names that have their resume on file with all of those places simultaneously.
I'll let you take a stab at how that affects the odds of getting hired at, not necessarily the first choice company, but a company at the "major league" level.
We're waiting.
As far as I know UPS does not accept applications that do not meet their minimums and as such their minimums are pretty high. Therefore it is easy to assume that there are at least 14,000 (most likely more) ready, capable and qualified applicants out their at any one moment time.
Right now the big three are; UPS, FedEx and SWA.
UPS 2945
FedEx 4760
SWA
5600
Total 13,305
13,305 divided by a 30 year average career length and we are left with 443.5 Hires in an average year due to retirements. At any one time we nationally have 14,000 to 17,000 current qualified and experienced pilots in the total applicant pool.
Qualified = college educated, 1000 hours of turbine PIC.
Divide the number of qualified applicants (Average 15,500) by the averaged annual hire of 443.5 and your total odds have jumped to 34.949 to one. As pilots we will peak in employment desirability at around 25 to 35 years of age and between 1000 and 2000 hours of jet PIC.
Result: Pilot odds will improve to a point where for a few years the best chances are nearly 35 to one of getting hired at SWA, UPS or FedEx. After that they then begin to worsen over time.
If you wish to add in UAL, DAL, CAL then the odds get a little better however the return on a career at these companies has been greatly discounted over the last few years. You could throw in a bunch of other random companies and better your odds but that is exactly what my point is. Eventually most here will have to accept a greatly reduced version of their dream and that may not be worth the effort.
SkyHigh