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Old 10-28-2023 | 08:08 AM
  #71  
Bluedriver
The REAL Bluedriver
 
Joined: Sep 2011
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From: Airbus Capt
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Originally Posted by Halon1211
the 2007/2008 housing market crash was predicted by a few markers that some people picked up on.

defaults on subprime mortgages started to slowly climb years before it even happened.

they even made a good movie about it called “the big short”
The housing market crash of 2007-2008? It's just not the same, at all. First you're talking about housing, which is very different and much more consequential than cars or credit cards. Second, auto loans and credit card debt are widely distributed between national and local banks, and in the case of credit cards, even more so as the credit card issuers also include retailers like Target, Costco and Amazon.

The big problem with the mortgage crisis was mortgages issued to people who lied about their income (lier loans/STATED income loans), among other problems. Those sketchy mortgages were then packaged into investment bundles, falsely given good investment grade ratings, and then sold in massive quantities to a handful of large Wall Street banks primarily. So when the system cracked, those large investments banks which were, apparently, important to the rest of the financial system, those banks were "going to fail" and take down the whole economy.

That is FAR from the situation we have with credit cards and auto loans. That debt is widely distributed between national and local banks and credit unions, as well as Target, Costco and Amazon, to name only a few. If there is a large delinquency of auto/credit card debt, each of those thousands of banks/retailers will each take a haircut, and the pain will be wide but shallow. In the case of the housing crisis the pain was narrow but deep, concentrated to a handful of banks that apparently we "couldn't live without". The difference between these scenarios is profound, both in the importance/relevance of the underlying assets and the way the debt is held/distributed. I do believe that mass quantities of auto and credit card default could get the ball rolling on a recession, but to compare it to the 2007-2008 housing collapse is moronical.

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