I think the next couple of bids will tell a more accurate tale.

The last bid had some quality December training as your reward and with vacancy bids coming every month there is virtually no risk at waiting a month to avoid getting a training slot that you likely don't want. The training center is closed on Christmas Day, so you know you will have that off, but could work Christmas Eve morning and then have to be back on the morning of the 26th, that coupled with blowing up most of your other December plans make many not too interested in bidding for a new seat this time of year. Again, with all the 737s and 321s we have coming, there will be Captain bids coming every month so we will see if the January-March slots for training are more enticing.

As far as how long they will be on reserve, the conventional wisdom was that those that got 777/787 FO on the coasts in the summer of 22 were going to be on reserve "forever." Then 6 months later they were holding a line! So, conventional wisdom from us old guys about how long things are going to take to move has been grossly off for the last few years, enough so that I would definitely take the under on the "decade" estimate!!!!