None of that dispels his larger premise that the industry was fundamentally very different back then. More airlines flying fewer passengers with more expensive (crew to a small degree, but especially fuel efficiency) airplanes with substantially lower profit margins, where a minor decrease in revenue due to fairly standard economic fluctuations could make the difference between profit and loss or even solvency and insolvency.

That also doesn't dispel your notion that this industry has a history of unforeseen events that turn it upside down. Both can be true. And they are.

I tend to err on his side, though, that the industry has materially changed via consolidation and that airlines (for the sake of my argument, I'm referring specifically to the three main legacies) are probably more insulated now than ever before from the run-of-the-mill economic cycles. Couple that with unprecedented retirements for the foreseeable future (if 67 passes, the bell curve just slides two years to the right), and it's not naïve to believe that there's good reason to suspect the status quo to continue for a while.