2017 and succeeding years were all strong years for hiring. 2014-2016 were relatively light hiring years in comparison. This means that calendar wise upgrades will almost certainly continue to slow. However, package volume will drive everything.

The CEO is explicitly pursuing higher revenue per package, not so much more packages. That said, the system needs some minimum level of package volume to make the economics work. It’s a balance that the companies appears to be struggling with right now. Personally, I think we’re likely to see a shifting strategy and some recovery in volume going forward as low hanging fruit the company intentionally ignored the last few years is picked. What this means for the average line pilot? My guess is average 75 upgrades per year over the next 3-4 years.