Originally Posted by
En Garde
What's the best way to "predict/gauge" upgrade times her at B6. I've been going to PVBM and just messing with my bid status and picking furthest Date out and comparing the junior CA seniority to mine. Is there any other method to try and get a picture of where I'd fall?
had a buddy interview recently and was told time to upgrade in BOS is pushing 10 years (320). I'm under 3 years and 190 aside trying to best figure a general timeline to left seat. Given VIL in BOS feel like it could stay a long while to upgrade again.
* realize the merger could change this all for better or worse
It’s generally best to just look at percentages. If the overall percentage of the junior 320 BOS captain is 63% in the company (arbitrary number, I haven’t checked it lately) then you can expect that bidding behavior will roughly be the same as the airline grows such that when you’re 63%, you’d be able to hold that. Back in the day when I was bored I kept a spreadsheet that had all the retirements, percentages for jr award in each base and seat, hiring predictions based on the order book, and figured it out that way and kind of had a model for when it would make sense to be a 190 CA then a 320 CA from a QOL standpoint.
Next year we are shrinking, and as the 190 goes away, instead of a much lower paying 2nd fleet (with a 3rd fleet, which adds even more staffing complexity), we will just have 2 similarly paying fleets. The pay/seniority crossover will change, because someone at 5-7 years could have good QOL as a 190 CA, but may not be able to as a 320 or 220 CA. So some will bypass so they aren’t super junior. As the 220 fleet grows, the bidding behavior will stabilize and be easier to predict. A guy who is like an 80% JFK 320 CA could be like a 35% JFK 220 CA. That’s somewhat anomalous, imo, and a lot of guys who would be super junior crappy line holders or reserve on the bus will then go 220CA. So I predict 220 will go a lot more senior than it did last bid. The recent opening of JFK 220 and pending closing of BOS 190 will also change things. So, on the supplemental displacement, and the annual bid (where they are trying to open 2 new bases), there will be a lot of movement in 2025. Weird things will happen. Could go way junior. Could go way senior. Throw in the merger….and 2025-2027 will likely be very unpredictable, and there are so many variables changing now so there’s no good way to really take past results to guess future outcomes.
anyway, short answer, overall percentages for awards historically has been the best way to figure it out. But with all this change, good luck. Gonna be all over the place. Bid what you want. Budget big things like you’ll be on FO pay for the next 10+ years.