Originally Posted by
SamuelTheKItty
If one was to speculate, absent of some black swan event, how much longer is the current wave going to last? I feel like I'm increasingly hearing about how things are starting to wind down, particularly if one isn't eligible currently to occupy the left seat in a 121 operation.
Don't really have to speculate, retirements are known, I think there's a thread with that data in the majors section.
Basically crazy gangbuster retirements now through about 2026-ish, then tapering off somewhat but still a robust wave into the early 2030's. After, still pretty good retirement numbers (by historical standards) for the rest of that decade.
For noobs, you should strive to get in as early as possible... if you catch the end of the wave, you'll still get the job fairly easily but your future seniority progression won't be as crazy as right now.