Well...AA hired ~8000 in the last 10 years. If they hire 1K-2K/yr for the next 5 years. They would have hired 13K-18K over an 15 year period. Some of them were old, the vast majority were not. While yes 5 years from now AA will still be retiring 500/yr for 10 more years after that, but that would really be offset by the "over hiring" that's happening right now, unless you believe at some point AA will be an 20K-25K pilot force airline. Or if they slow hiring at some point, but that would mean an 5 year flow will possibly go to 10 years or beyond.

If you actually flowed in 5 years, it'll be a very slow crawl up the list until 20 years after you flowed when the next retirement wave hits.

Or something else might happen that would change things entirely.

In my opinion 5-8 years from now it'll be another period of great stagnation. If they're still selling an 5 year flow at this point, it's pretty disingenuous. But what choice does one have? Flowing always should be plan B, better to have that card than not in your pocket.

Good luck.