I hope I explain this correctly. You are correct as far as primary and secondary fills are concerned. However an excess is a whole new ballgame. Again, if excessed, you can go to any seat/aircraft that someone junior to you is currently flying. The one caveat being, you cannot go to an FDA(HKG) if that results in an excess.

The rational human being would assume that an excess would be created in HKG once there are more than the 49 previous primary postings filled. Unfortunately, you are assuming 49 to be the magical number. In all likelihood, it will be 49, or a figure very close to that. But I'm guessing, the company can pick any number they wish.

They don't want to play their cards now perhaps to dissuade those folks who can hold HKG captain(based on the junior captain previously awarded HKG). If they bid it and don't get it, there might be some passover pay ramifications. I'm not even going to try and get into that! So, show everbody bidding it, they will be awarded it. Most don't want to go, but would love to stay as a relatively senior F/O and get passover pay. Instead, it behooves the company not to divulge that magical number to preclude the masses from bidding it(again, since they might think they will have to go).

When the bid actually closes, we will know what that figure is. For those junior folks who are just barely senior to the junior captain in HKG..."do you feel lucky?"