Originally Posted by Sliceback

BOS has done this several times since 1987 - locked down tight, guys start pouring in...and then it locks down again. In 5, 10, 15, 20 years the same names are still there. Guys that don't make the upgrade cutoff end up commuting to NYC for the upgrade. FO decades ago was looking into BOS "things are moving fast there!" I told him it was fools gold.

Figure out the percentage of guys retiring out of the various bases in the next couple of years. Count the total of sub x thousand seniority numbers (10,000?). That's the new blood. Is there more new blood in the base then Captains that are going to retire in the next x years? How many new Captains that have more than x (10, 15, 20?) years to retirement? That might give you some inisight into the upgrade vs stagnation possibilities. Run imaginary 3XP's in 3, 5, 10 years after subtracting the future retirements. What does that show?

It's hard to predict the future but looking at data might be able to give you some insight.