Originally Posted by
game
Does this signal the end of probationary pilots getting Captain awards? Are we entering an era of more traditional seniority progression now that the crest of retirement tidal wave has passed in 2023? What say you tea leaf people?
I'm usually 100% wrong in anything I try and predict in aviation, so maybe this will age like milk and 2014+ hires will see WBA later this year
Widget Seniority probably has more detailed info, but looking at the retirements in the Seniority Progression by Year section of the ALPA app its showing 450-550 retirements a year steady until 2032, where it drops to about 350ish and holds around that for a while. So even if we don't hire to grow and just maintain 17,000 pilots, someone hired today is still gonna move about a 3rd of the way up the list in less than a decade. The curve seems to become more linear between 2035-2045 and then retirements pick up slightly again.