I would not want to be in charge of Manpower.

I still think the attrition will be disproportinately FOs. Ironically they had a headstart as many of them prob had their apps out before the merger denial/delay.

I don't know how the balance is right now between Caps and FOs, but if it was reasonably balanced previously then it will be out of balance shortly. As the Captain numbers will likely outsize the FO numbers by a larger and larger number in the short term, you will likely see a displacement of Captains before you would see any furlough. Then it comes down to how good they are at predicting how many Captains will actually leave. Since those that leave will only be giving 2 weeks notice, deciding how many to displace is going to be a wild arse guess that has to be done well before the company actually knows who is leaving. Then once you tell folks they are displaced, those that hadn't sent out their apps already will prob do so. That means that your training plan is going to be blown up multiple times.

I guess the good news is that the big 3 have been poaching Spirit folks for awhile, so they should have a good baseline of attrition to work from. Now they just need to figure out how many folks further up the seniority list have seen the light at the end of the tunnel and now believe it is in fact a train!

So, I would not want to be in charge of Manpower.