Originally Posted by
monkeyboy511
Stayontarget - thank you for your thoughtful and cogent response. I agree with with your assessment in toto however, I do have concerns surrounding F9's tax strategy in the long-term. While I am not privy to inside information defined by the SEC, I am only able to assess based on publicly available information. That being said, in my humble opinion, F9 could be painting themselves in a corner by focusing on near-term profits rather than long-term strategy. Lot's of bravado from BB and the gang with little or no measurable financial or market gain. The "cost-cutting to achieve profitability" method comes at a very high price and high risk - especially when applied to Part 121 air carriers. Historically, airlines that have failed, or suffred bankruptcy first cut costs in pilot training. Looking at PAA, EAL, CAL, and BNF, even UAL in 2002, all of whom first cut costs in training while facing financial stress. I can't help but strongly suspect F9's training dept is being pressured by BL to significantly reduce the training footprint for already inexperienced new hires in an effort to perceivably reduce expenses. History has the propensity to repeat itself. Is F9 setting themselves up for a perfect storm?
Right back at you. We are on the same team here.
Yes, regarding SEC info…I cannot find our total DTA value. That would clear up some inference with my guess at the tax scenario. Unfortunately, we pilots are often missing most of the information our company uses to make decisions. We agree that the cost cutting has a limit. Personally, I think they have just about or already found that limit and are as low as the CASM excluding fuel will allow. The goal was below 6 cents and they made it to 5.9. Time to focus on RASM.
As far as training. That’s a whole other subject. My glass half full thought and in talking with a CA lead was more along the lines of SL got the promotion and decided we need to retool our training to more appropriately bring cadets up to speed. More sim sessions, and better training devices. But this is all second hand info that could be easily skewed.
In the end only time will tell.