Originally Posted by
flysnoopy76
If American, United, and Delta continue with their reduced but still historically large hiring numbers I don’t see Alaska’s retention of pilots staying where it is now. Alaska is stopping hiring, captain downgrades are likely, and although I haven’t heard the furlough word mentioned yet, those typically will come with downgrades. If the three large airlines continue hiring, I’m not sure the current environment at Alaska will be very appealing to those who are sitting on reserve for a couple years with no end in sight.
Hopefully hiring at those airlines will result in enough attrition that any potential staffing changes in the form of downgrades and furloughs are mitigated.
If AS furloughs and there has been zero thought given to that currently, you can’t even imagine what happens at the big three in that scenario. This is a cyclical industry, a few years ago FedEx was the penthouse, right now probably UA… but if this economy tanks, as good as 2023 looked at the big 3… well the inverse is also true. I do think consolidation and retirements mute any serious decay over the next 24 months but I expect every airline to take a hiring pause over the next few months. AS traditional does very well in a downturn, this time I would expect to be no different, we do have a lot on our plate right now though. I expect 2024 and 2025 to suck everywhere. Get to where you want to be, the music is about to stop for a couple of years.
Laugh it off, go back and look at what people were saying in 2000 at UAL. 😱