Originally Posted by BlueScholar

I wouldn't bet too much on growth. The whole point was to encourage NB CA upgrades by adding LAS and MCO domiciles and then shifting flying from less popular, expensive coastal bases like SFO and EWR that are tough to staff, to more popular bases like IAH and DEN. The new contract means the company can allow (or force) new hires to NB CA and fix the manning issue. That decision also played a role in the meltdown this summer when the NE got hit with weather and ~20% of the EWR crews are actually IAH crews, and the company couldn't get people in place, so who knows how long that experiment will run. There are rumors of making it a hub, but the company said this wouldn't add flying initially, and they will continue to reevaluate the decision. So maybe, maybe not, maybe they're waiting for MIA to sink into the ocean first. A big piece might be what happens to Spirit's gates.

We have 16,800 pilots and we're probably hiring around 2000 a year. Jr FO is 400 up from the bottom, so maybe ~4 months to get it and 4 months for the move to activate. Jr CA is 11,9xx, so maybe like 2-3 years. But, if none of the floridians want to leave then that timeline is going to be longer. Who can say? The current vacancy bid which is still open has 5 FO's which is close to my rough guesstimates, but there are no CA vacancies and no MCO CA's bidding out. The previous most jr MCO CA vacancy went to a 4,2xx pilot. Safe to say it's gonna be a while!