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Old 02-18-2024 | 09:37 PM
  #47  
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hindsight2020
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From: Center seat, doing loops to music
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In fairness, accessions and the size of AETC (nee ATC) were both much larger pre 1991. The low washout rates came with the introduction of the T-1, which has saved a lot of lives and careers (most AF pilots didn't and don't need to train in the T-38 to do their crew MWS airplane jobs, anymore than naval aviators, a helo plurality cohort, would need strike pipeline to do their jobs).

The persitence of the "unflickabble booger" problem is not an accessions problem (UPT washout rates are thus immaterial), but a retention problem. 1)Money and 2)lack of control being the fundamental impasse between HAF and the largely uniquely Field Grade Officer subdemographic in question. #2 in particular from where I sit in that .mil continuum.

The USAF has been clear they don't consider any of it a retention a problem, so nothing will change. Labeling it a "production problem" has always been gaslighting on the part of the Service in order to dismiss their field grade officer cadre's complaints. Thing is, the airlines will hicupp again, as they always do, as a cyclical industry. As such, the usaf will win again at playing run the clock offense. I'm not advocating for any of it, I'm just describing the water. Don't shoot the messenger, but we've seen this movie before. Sure, I think it's a cold play, but it works for the service, yes at the cost of a number of excess deaths. To wit, it's a number the service is content with, but one they're not going to be public about it.

Take care of yourself and your crew (if you have one), and make the highly individual and cold calculus of whether the risk of operating uncle sammy's decaying legacy fleet (under the Feres doctrine no less) is worth bodily injury/death over the opportunity cost of a statistically safer and greater airline income, the day after your initial UFT ADSC expires. No right and wrong answer, I've known many brothers in arms who have said "no más" to what they deem gratuitous bodily and income risk by staying in a military (especially ejection seat) cockpit over just going to the airline gig full time. But kvetching about uncle sammy's deal won't move the needle on a policy basis, so it's a crap or get off the pot affair in the end.
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