Originally Posted by
VacancyBid
The longer your time horizon the less medical issues matter. A pilot who medicals out at 63 in 2025 doesn't retire in 2027. So for a given year you might expect 100 retirements and get 110 ... for a decade you're gonna expect 1000 retirements and get 1020 or whatever.
it affects the number of pilot person- years available when someone medicals out or dies prematurely. It affects the rate of seniority accrual and will ultimately require more new hires SOONER to replace those people. The point being that will increase hiring at the bottom over what it would have been had those pilots not died before retirement or lost their medicals before retirement. It's a queuing theory deal not so much affecting annual retirements (you can only retire, permanently lose your medical, or die once) as it does the total number of pilots that will be required over time, which is sort of what the thread is all about.