We know growth is going to continue at Envoy for the next few years and attrition is going to slow. Envoy had been losing about 40 pilots a month including 16 captains a month to flow. Rumor has it there would be no flow in March and during the summer. Hiring is not going to suddenly stop due to slower attrition because of growth plans. We are still getting "new" used E170s/E175s and delivery of those will not be slowed down even if Embraer has problems delivering planes.

Envoy has traditionally given hiring preference to cadets, DECs, and high time FOs. If hiring slows down a bit, they likely will slow down hiring of off the street FOs at minimums. If they suddenly decide they only need a few off the street FOs a month, it will get more competitive and they will hire the people with more flight hours and/or fewer failures. Envoy may also get more DECs when FOs at other airlines realize they can no longer go straight to a legacy, and if they have to upgrade, they can get a large bonus for going to Envoy to upgrade. If they have enough cadets reaching minimums, there may be some months when they don't hire off the street 1500 hour FOs at all.

The sky isn't falling. Competition is heating up.