Originally Posted by
ShyGuy
I keep hearing up to 50 Amazon widebodies, amazing growth potential at CVG and SBD. I just don’t trust Amazon. This isn’t our own flag cargo ops. It’s at the whim of whatever cutthroat decisions Amazon decides. In the world of Mesa and ATSG, I don’t know that if AS can provide a long term cost-competitive contract. I certainly wouldn’t put any weight to it going forward. Just my worthless 2 cents.
We *might* provide a cost-competitive contract, if AS gets enough of that flying. Here's how it could go down...
AZ flying grows and we now have hundreds maybe pushing 1000 pilots doing that, many living in the base(s).
Then AZ or outside market factors puts the squeeze on for contract renewal, what's the union going to do? Allow all those pilots to get kicked to the curb, permanently or at least until pax growth attrition can re-employ them? Union politics could drive the MEC to do concessions in that scenario. More so than in an economic downturn, where you know the flying and the furloughs will come back in a few years.
HAL ALPA did it, due to economic pressures, are we that much better?
All that said, it's *possible* that AZ would like to have a large reliable operator, especially during the pilot shortage era, but that could always change down the road. Bezos isn't famous for his generosity.