Folks need to read between the lines here. The industry is not failing apart, this is not a sign of a black swan event. It was publicly stated that United expects to receive 102 fewer aircraft in 2024. Not knowing the spread of 737/321/787 off the top of my head, one can assume that is easily ~1200 pilots. Hiring for those deliveries began early last year and not receiving them creates a massive surplus of pilots. Looking at the number of offerings for empty lines and eCOLAs, it is a TINY fraction of our pilot group. 140 pilots in total between the two offerings.
The 787 got hit the hardest for May, which leads me to believe those deliveries have lagged the most so far, alongside the fact that the # of crews per 787 is much higher than a 737 due to the augmentation on that fleet. Probably explains why the new Marrakesh route will be on a 767.
Why the 737 and 320 weren’t involved in the May empty line/eCOLA offering is a sort of a mystery. My best guess is because the training pipeline is still jammed full of newhires and new captains, the company doesn’t want LCPs taking any sort of leaves.
Management knows these planes will eventually come. When? Who knows, but they are simply using contractual methods to temporarily reduce the headcount of the more expensive senior pilots, while still taking on newhires to be ready for when the deliveries spool up again.