Originally Posted by
Hedley
Aircraft deliveries are obviously slowing this hiring wave down. As a result hiring will pace expected deliveries until the legacies get to the size that they envision in their master plan and the big wave will be over. When that happens, hiring will revert to more traditional levels to replace attrition, or let attrition shrink to match demand. Attrition will also slow significantly at the regionals. At that point the legacies will start lowballing their regionals when contracts near the end to fly for lower cost or lose the flying, and the race to the bottom comes back. I don't see pay going back to previous levels, but I can see it taking a significant hit or at the very least let inflation do the work. This recent hiring environment is a once in a lifetime wave and is not anywhere close to normal. The whipsaw will return.
Boeing's foibles and follies are a convenient scape goat for mainline management. With all the retirements, mainline was/is still well short Captains before taking new aircraft deliveries into consideration. Hasn't UAL been running an "accelerated upgrade" program for the better part of a year, if not more?
Blaming it on Boeing takes the blame off management in the eyes of shareholders.
Originally Posted by QRH Bingo
Those companies which have not made their raises permanent will likely roll them back when able. Companies with rates as a permanent fixture in their contract will see pay stagnate when negotiations come back around as the companies refuse to renegotiate higher rates. Negotiations will drag on without a new contract or higher pay as companies dig in.
Contracts are made to be broken. No such thing as "permanent" in Aviation.