About 15 months ago we thought we were going to be getting 183 new planes in 2024
About 4.5 months ago we thought we were going to be getting 110ish new planes in 2024
As of this week we think we are going to get 61 planes in 2024

So, it depends on how bad Boeing (and to a lesser extent Airbus) continue to fall short of their delivery schedule. 787s are supposed to start coming again in the Fall (Origianlly the Spring) and new Widebodies always creates a great deal of movement. So, hopefully we will see Boeing get their act together by then on both the WB and NB side, but at this point we just don't know.

Now that is the near term problem that makes the next 12ish months difficult to predict. On the good news front we still have a crap ton of aircraft on order (it is just going to take longer to get them) and 500+ retirements per year. With those two things you should still see massive hiring numbers for many years to come. 2500 a year again? maybe not, but massive by normal metrics.

Finally, world events can turn things around quickly for both the better and the worse. Russia - Ukraine continues to be a problem or expands, things look worse. Russia-Ukraine dies down/ends and we can overfly Russia again, things look better. China invades Taiwan...... Middle East......... you get the idea.

We will get a much better idea of the rest of 2024 in late May early June when we see the classes start back up in July (or not) Right now everything they are saying is classes will start up again in July and happen every week (except some Holidays) through the end of the year. Once that happens and we see what the size of those classes are, then we will get a real idea of what the total will be for the year.