Downgrades honestly would not surprise me. We are overstaffed. And the cost effective argument only really works for multi-fleet, narrowbody+widebody carriers. Downgrades and furloughs are costly for them. A single fleet carrier? Downgrades and furloughs are not expensive. You can get rid of them quick and bring them back quick. SFO has been a major bust ever since the pandemic. And it's also where the most junior CAs seem to be. A downgrade would basically make the most junior CAs in SFO and SEA FOs again, unless a displacement bid opens in a more senior base (eg, LAX). Then that would result in multiple displacements.

Cheapest way for them to do it would be to publish a displacement CA reduction only in SFO and SEA CA. That will knock out the bottom of the CA list with people who couldn't have held ANC, PDX, or LAX CA.


Our hiring for late 2023 was to build up for 2024's deliveries and flying. With the ongoing Boeing issues with no end in sight, they have to re-adjust. I'll even venture a guess that we are not going to be able to take the planned 2025 deliveries either. If that comes in less than planned, expect no hiring and very possible likeliness of downgrades later this year.