Originally Posted by
flysnoopy76
The last few vacancies that drove upgrades were to provide the staffing for the scheduled deliveries. The 15 deliveries you mentioned, are already staffed as well as many more that we are not getting. I wouldn’t bank on getting all 15 of those either, it is Boeing we are talking about after all. Other factors also contribute, future load factors, economic variables etc. If we are overstaffed for the summer flying imagine what fall and winter looks like. Typically downgrades also equal furloughs, but furloughs are more difficult to recover if you need pilots again, downgrades are cheap and easy, one sim and everyone is still on property. In addition PBS, while nice that it is easier to bid, requires fewer pilots.
1Q analyst call didn't seem to hint at furloughs. You might read into ST's commentary that since the original plan was to replace 900's with Max, they can simply keep the 900's longer if they need capacity and the Max's haven't shown up. Also a mention of compensation from Boeing.
If the travel demand tanks, that's a different issue but despite all the doomsayers not only does recreational travel seem to remain a priority for consumers, business travel is now coming back too.