Sanctions pretty much aren't effective. We've been sanctioning Cuba since Feb 3, 1962 and it ain't done squat. Well, it has given them the biggest collection of working 1950s US vehicles in the world, but other than that it ain't done squat.

https://www.lafontaineclassiccars.co...-classic-cars/

The problem with sanctions is that they interfere with the free market. For there to be any interactions to sanction there has to be a market to interfere with. Markets work because BOTH SIDES of the deal feel they are getting something more valuable than they are giving up. By that fact, sanctions initially hurt both sides. Not only that, their effectiveness goes away with time as the people being sanctioned find other markets to replace the previous ones, just as Russia has sold a lot more oil to India and China to offset that they are no longer selling to Western Europe.

I think the best chance that Ukraine had to retain Crimea and the Donbas was the Minsk II agreement allowing these areas a degree of self government while still keeping them nominally part of Ukraine.

https://epicenter.wcfia.harvard.edu/...nsk-agreements

Certainly not ideal by any means but probably woukd have been better than the subsequent outcome.

Perhaps if both sides bleed enough they might actually go back and give something like Minsk II a trial, although the longer that Russia keeps gaining and the more this costs them the less likely I think they'll be to give any of it up. Just my opinion.