Originally Posted by
gloopy
Much in the same way that we were briefly the "new hires get A350" airline for a while...until we weren't...this too will likely revert back to "normal" seniority levels but will very possibly maintain the occasional statistical outlier here or there. That will cause every future new hire to be told that "upgrade is XX months at DL" and the entire airline below the most junior number forever saying "I can hold it" when only one of them could and the opportunity has passed.
I'm not predicting that upgrades will surge back into the decades plus levels again. I'm just not sure if they will stay at the current almost entitled mid to upper 80% levels forever.
Except NB A in the mid-80's percent IS normal, at least for the last decade. I would absolutely agree that "time to hold" is a
terrible method of describing plug NB A. Along with several others, I have long argued that % is the
only consistent/reliable descriptor, and has held relatively stable over the last decade (excluding Covid craziness) in the mid-80's%. I would take issue with your assertion that plug NB A is "much the same" as "new hires get the A350" though. IMO, it is
not at all the same. NH WB B was a very short term thing, with a
very specific once-in-a-lifetime cause (hopefully, anyway). But there is a parallel, as the data will show.
From the January SL for the last 5 years before Covid hit - the plug NB A varied between the M88 or 717:
2016: 82.5%
2017: 85.7%
2018: 87.7%
2019: 81.3%
2020: 78.1%
After hiring returned in 2014 after a decade and a half of almost no hiring, the effects on staffing were eventually felt, and the "% to hold" NB A dropped from 82.5% to as low as 89.5% (I didn't check every month, but the highest NB A % I found was Jun 2018). Then, when they started closing the M88 bases (in order, CVG/NYC, then MSP, and finally ATL), the percentages trended senior again as the MadDog was being drawn down. IMO, this was primarily due to the -88
displacements. So what about that decade and a half, where there are only roughly 650 numbers between the last 2001 hire and 2014 hires? Those pilots, who (no coincidence) took 15+ years to hold Captain, were the unfortunate victims of multiple circumstances. In 2001: 9/11; 2005: Bankruptcy; 2007: 60>65; 2008: DL/NW merger.
Super unlucky timing for those 99-2001 hires, especially if they were NW. Almost zero hiring for 15 years... My point is this, THAT wasn't normal, even if it happened to a lot of pilots for 15ish years. Or at least, there is a new normal over the last decade...
So, I would argue it's fair to say that compared to history, a very stable 86-87% for NB A is within "normal". Again, it may trend slightly more senior as hiring returns to (pre-covid) "normal", but barring some genuine and major change in hiring practices beyond what they have announced, I don't see it changing my more than 4-5% tops. So the question really is, how long will it take a NH today to rise to mid-80's seniority?
*edit to add* Sorry, the math and typing took some time with other things going on in the house. Agree with the previous 2 posts, though I personally think if they hire like they have pseudo-projected, NB A will be quicker than 4.5 years.