Originally Posted by
fishforfun
Considering the retirement of our 76 fleet is about 6 years away we are going to have to order a lot of WB, and soon. JB is doing it with 321s. I don’t think we would do that but when you look at delta net and see FRA is done once a day by us and 4 other flights on foreign carriers I could see a lot more of that. What does a 763 hold? 210? 1 339 for every 2-3 763 or 1 359 for every 3-4 and sprinkle in an additional AF, KLM etc and we aren’t a lot better off. Not seeing any orders that indicate we are going to be doing much more than we are today. Add in our older 333 will be going not far behind the 763s. Net gain will be minimal at best.
That's an impossibly pessimistic view. Not sure how you are extrapolating one FRA route in order to get there? Global scope will not let your 'sprinkle' happen.
The company has been on record that their 'rebuild' focus will shift from domestic to international. Obviously, I'll believe it when I see it, but there really can be no way to even maintain the status quo but to replace 763's with 339's and/or 359's. There are something like 46 firm WB orders with at least 20 options. Those will be both 763 replacements, as well as growth. I just don't see that as anything but good, and more specifically, more WB pay-banded jobs.
So to get this back on track, to the New Hire's coming to this thread - WB won't be available in NH drops again, probably ever. We have returned to 'historical' seniority levels to hold WB B, which is somewehre in the low 70's% in the overall seniority list. How long will it take you to rise to 70% in the company? That's really hard to predict, but those who are getting awards at 70% today were hired immediately after the post-Covid hiring wave started 6000+ pilots ago, so you can't take thier "time on property" as
any kind of guide. BUT, as the 43+ WB's get delivered over the next 5+ years, that 'time to hold' will probably get worse, peak, and then start to drop again.