They wouldn't have.

Without Extension 2020, our contract would have become amendable in September 2021 with the contract stipulating negotiations beginning Sept 2020. Thing is, in Sept 2020 we were all neck deep in global pandemic BS and "keeping the global economy moving", so it is probably safe to say negotiations would not have started until mid-2021.

We can look to our Purple brethren's experience: their negotiations began May 2021, mediated negotiations started October 2022, TA reached May 2023 which was rejected by the membership. And critically important to remember - FDX didn't have the NLRB-governed Teamsters negotiations to deal with like we did. Now, had we been in mediated negotiations would the NMB have paused mediated sessions due to Teamsters? There's little sense in speculating, but I personally think the possibility of that would have been pretty high.

Either way, I don't believe we'd have ratified a TA nor do I think we'd have one imminent. We'd still be at $337.65/yr top rate during a period of high inflation, with a MASSIVE hourly rate hole to dig out of like FDX has, with a multi-year negotiations assessment on top of that...to say nothing about lost DC contributions, extending/increasing the Flat Dollar Amount, and making summer vacation percentages effective for seven months vs. five.

All academic FOMO talk at this point really, as both extensions passed with 90%+ and we start negotiations next week.