What do we think the odds are of another vacancy bid this year with NB vacancies?

Reason is, as an SFO resident currently commuting to IAH Guppy FO reserve, I want out of IAH yesterday. So I'm thinking of bidding SFO / LAX / LAS / DEN FO, to make my commute easier. I'm optimistic I'd get DEN FO, given the 100 open spots. Maybe LAX if I'm really lucky. Commuting long-call to DEN should be easier than to IAH, esp. given that I live next to OAK airport and SWA has lots of OAK-DEN options. Although in the winter I suppose IAH would be easier just because of the better weather? Maybe?

On the other hand, I really want SFO Guppy CA. If I bid that and get it, I'd go to training in summer '25. But I'd have to wait till the next vacancy bid to try for a lateral transfer out of IAH as an FO. So I'm tempted to bid for SFO CA, but place it after LAX or DEN FO, just so I get LAX or DEN FO now and make my commute easier. On the other hand, I don't want to miss out on the SFO CA opportunities. But I guess with SFO growing the 737, there should be more CA opportunities in the future, right?

And yes, I do recognize how incredible it is that a guy with 3 months on property can even have these options. My last trip was with a CA who'd been furloughed twice ('01 hire). What a different kind of career experience he's had. Conversely I just bumped into a CA who looked about 25 yo (and probably was.) What a world we live in...