Originally Posted by
Turbosina
What do we think the odds are of another vacancy bid this year with NB vacancies?
Reason is, as an SFO resident currently commuting to IAH Guppy FO reserve, I want out of IAH yesterday. So I'm thinking of bidding SFO / LAX / LAS / DEN FO, to make my commute easier. I'm optimistic I'd get DEN FO, given the 100 open spots. Maybe LAX if I'm really lucky. Commuting long-call to DEN should be easier than to IAH, esp. given that I live next to OAK airport and SWA has lots of OAK-DEN options. Although in the winter I suppose IAH would be easier just because of the better weather? Maybe?
On the other hand, I really want SFO Guppy CA. If I bid that and get it, I'd go to training in summer '25. But I'd have to wait till the next vacancy bid to try for a lateral transfer out of IAH as an FO. So I'm tempted to bid for SFO CA, but place it after LAX or DEN FO, just so I get LAX or DEN FO now and make my commute easier. On the other hand, I don't want to miss out on the SFO CA opportunities. But I guess with SFO growing the 737, there should be more CA opportunities in the future, right?
And yes, I do recognize how incredible it is that a guy with 3 months on property can even have these options. My last trip was with a CA who'd been furloughed twice ('01 hire). What a different kind of career experience he's had. Conversely I just bumped into a CA who looked about 25 yo (and probably was.) What a world we live in...
I think the biggest question you need to ask yourself is why you want a CA spot. Is it simply because you *want* to upgrade, or are you doing it because it’s what’s best for family, finances, financial planning, etc.
If you simply want to upgrade just to upgrade then I would take the base transfer first and then put your name in the upgrade hat. If you’re wanting to upgrade for the latter reasons then I would say get a CA seat locked in asap and then worry about the base transfer. Always bid for where you’d want to be if the music stops tomorrow.
Upgrades right now may not stop, but they may suddenly begin to trend more senior. If that were to happen, are you okay staying in the right seat, or would you be kicking yourself for not taking the upgrade just to avoid a couple extra months of commuting? Also something to keep in mind that, with a base transfer, you don’t automatically transfer on the effective date listed on the bid. It can take up to six months for you to be activated into your base award based on the needs of manpower planning. At that point, what’s another month or so of commuting in order to get your ultimate desire (captain upgrade) locked in. Commuting is not fun. Been there done that plenty of times, but sometimes it’s a necessary evil. Especially when family is involved. Only you can make that call.