Originally Posted by BlueWater

With Q3 estimates so grim, somewhere in the ballpark of -300m, what’s next?



Product:

They say profits from new products can take upwards of a year to realize. I hope the new products do well, I’m not sure it is enough to be honest. It doesn’t quite seem as premium as they think it is, and our operational performance will shy away potential new customers.



If the brand wants to be looked at as more premium the customer service must follow. WIth contracted employees above and below the wing everywhere except FLL, this seems difficult to standardize. The employees don’t quite have as much skin in the game and don’t have as much of an incentive to create a nice experience.



Fleet:

Orders for 2025/26 are deferred until after 2030. This is probably needed while we get our financials in order, however, I think it could have helped with all the groundings next two years. Fly the new deliveries with the new product and make money, while Pratt pays a daily fee for the parked airplanes. Now we have to scale back the network and hope they do it right.


We’ve already performed sale lease backs on many planes. This does give additional liquidity now, and one could say this is just a financial transaction. However, if it were to come do bankruptcy we really don’t have many assets. Previously, If a bankruptcy acquisition occurred, we had a larger order book. Now, with the recent sale leaseback agreement of our 27/28 orders to AerCap we have even less assets and order book.. so less appealing to another airline looking to acquire us as a whole naturally or in a bankruptcy. This isn’t a good position to be in asset wise.



Faulty Engines:

-2024 EOY, there will be 30-35 parked

-2025 High of 67, with an average of 50 parked

-2026 According to the town hall, an average of 50 parked through the end of 2026


Pilots:

End of 2024 we will have 215 A/C, 35 parked, 15 pilots per plane is 2760.

2025/26 we will have 219 A/C, avg of 50 parked, 15 pilots per plane is 2535.

With 3450 pilots on property today, we are clearly overstaffed. Attrition isn’t as high as planned with most airlines not hiring for the remainder of the year. I can’t help but think there will be further furloughs?



Debt:

In addition to Quarterly losses for the foreseeable future, we have ALOT of debt coming due. If it’s not refinanced, we’ll be on a path to bankruptcy to reorganize. If it is refinanced and pushed down the road, we are still on a path to bankruptcy with the current trend and forecast of losses.



I just don’t see how this can work. Am I missing something? Can someone make this work?