Originally Posted by
FangsF15
You are neglecting to account for total size of the seniority list. “Number to hold” doesn’t work across time with a growing/shrinking list. There are nearly 1100 more pilots on the list than a year ago.
In Aug of 2023, it took 23.5% in the company to hold WB A. This AE it took 23.4%. Using “percent to hold” controls for the size of the list, and ‘what it takes to hold’ becomes very consistent, and trends can much more easily be analyzed.
If you go back up one level and look at the “AE Trend Analysis” pinned thread, the numbers will become apparent. I’ve thought about making a simple graph to help visualize it further.
2010 hires are nearly 1300 numbers away from WB A. It would have to drop to 31% for 2010 hires to get it in 6 months (on todays size list). Even if we added a net of 500 pilots in 6 months, it would still need to go to ~30%. It does vary seasonally, and last Feb, WB A got down to 27%, but in Mar was under 25%. I highly, highly doubt your prediction, even with some larger WB numbers coming over the winter.
My point is it made that move with 30% fewer vacancies compared to a year ago. Imagine what happens this year a little deeper into Widebody AE season on an AE with 50-60 spots instead of 40.
And if it made it to 27% last year, it’s going to go down even more this year with more large airframes. I am not sure of the number of yoy 350/330 increase. I would wager that the majority of ER downsizing will come from the bottom and not the top, especially at first until the seniors really start to feel the pain of worsening trips.
And I have the beginning of 2010s clocking in conservatively at 30% by February 1. 5100/17000. Realistically closer to 29%. Since the list should be slightly larger and they should be slightly under that.