Originally Posted by
Jonny Drama
My point is it made that move with 30% fewer vacancies compared to a year ago. Imagine what happens this year a little deeper into Widebody AE season on an AE with 50-60 spots instead of 40.
And if it made it to 27% last year, it’s going to go down even more this year with more large airframes. I am not sure of the number of yoy 350/330 increase. I would wager that the majority of ER downsizing will come from the bottom and not the top, especially at first until the seniors really start to feel the pain of worsening trips.
And I have the beginning of 2010s clocking in conservatively at 30% by February 1. 5100/17000. Realistically closer to 29%. Since the list should be slightly larger and they should be slightly under that.
It's a huge stretch to say "30% more vacancies" with such a small sample size. That's kind of meaningless. "Percent to hold" is the
only metric that works across time. And it's stable. WB A has been within 3% (up
and down) of 23-24% over the last 13 AE's. Even the super-MOAB in Jan 2020 (right berfore Covid), the most junior WB A was... 24.1%. That's the norm.
Even with a handful of WB 'growth' positions for a few 330/350 deliveries, I don't see how we go from a pretty stable number to suddenly the bottom dropping out, doubling the greatest delta from average. (since the
most senior 2010 hire will be around 5100, as you said, which will be very close to right at 30%). And certainly not in the next 5 months. The absolute most junior WB A has gotten in the last several years is ~27%.
Regardless, it's a psychological barrier, and nothing more.
My 2 Cents.