Originally Posted by
Jonny Drama
My point is it made that move with 30% fewer vacancies compared to a year ago. Imagine what happens this year a little deeper into Widebody AE season on an AE with 50-60 spots instead of 40.
And if it made it to 27% last year, it’s going to go down even more this year with more large airframes. I am not sure of the number of yoy 350/330 increase. I would wager that the majority of ER downsizing will come from the bottom and not the top, especially at first until the seniors really start to feel the pain of worsening trips.
And I have the beginning of 2010s clocking in conservatively at 30% by February 1. 5100/17000. Realistically closer to 29%. Since the list should be slightly larger and they should be slightly under that.
yep-in addition, the demographics may also add to WBA dropping outside of past norms. In other words, past performance does not guarantee future returns. Quite a few assumptions for entertainment value, but that’s what this site is partially for.
Generally speaking, the 07/08/10 folks have kids in middle/high school and have 20 years to retirement. Add in the great market returns, solid contract increases the past 10 years and relatively decent seniority (again with 20 years to go), knowing retirements are heavy the next 10 years combined with heavy WB aircraft adds the next few years, many in this group may wait a few years for a $75/hour pay increase especially as the trade is a commute and loss in massive seniority. Knowing they can bid WBA for 15 years versus 18, I see a much larger % deferring versus the 95-01 gang.