Originally Posted by
FangsF15
It's a huge stretch to say "30% more vacancies" with such a small sample size. That's kind of meaningless. "Percent to hold" is the only metric that works across time. And it's stable. WB A has been within 3% (up and down) of 23-24% over the last 13 AE's. Even the super-MOAB in Jan 2020 (right berfore Covid), the most junior WB A was... 24.1%. That's the norm.
Even with a handful of WB 'growth' positions for a few 330/350 deliveries, I don't see how we go from a pretty stable number to suddenly the bottom dropping out, doubling the greatest delta from average. (since the most senior 2010 hire will be around 5100, as you said, which will be very close to right at 30%). And certainly not in the next 5 months. The absolute most junior WB A has gotten in the last several years is ~27%.
Regardless, it's a psychological barrier, and nothing more.
My 2 Cents.
it’s a total head scratcher to me how you can keep pointing towards historical norms, when we are continuously marching towards new norms. Jan 2020 we had about 95 big widebodies. As of July we have 121 with 45 firm orders.
It’s not an outlier that Widebody A went to 27% last winter and it won’t be an outlier when it goes to 29/30% this winter. And the first 2014s will be under 30.5% by Feb 1.