I think it’s 50% pay, 25% QOL, 25% SJS that drives the WBA bid. That 4000 number barrier is a pretty solid WAG for holding. As the ERs retire, some people will bid over because they can’t hold Europe any more or because the Europe left becomes dirty Europe trips (half domestic/half Europe). This holds for senior ERAs and senior ERBs. Same holds true for LA and Hawaii; it already happened as the 32N took over and all the senior ERA Hawaii/Japan pilots said enough and just left for the 350A/330A.

WBA will trickle over in 2000/2001 seniority, and then right as the 2007s/2008s start to hold, the 339/351 deliveries are going to roll on and WBA quickly runs to 2014 hire. Wall gets a few rock chips in 2025, it falls end of 2026, early 2027. And it will be a massive rush through the gates. 5000 WBA seniority in 2027.

*stay away black swans, Putins, Taiwans, Irans