Originally Posted by
BoilerUP
In seriousness, reduced crew operations will come to cargo operations before it comes to passenger carriers.
That being said, consider how long it took the FAA to approve *ipads* to replace paper charts. Now consider that there are no currently made Part 25 aircraft that are certified for single pilot operations. Now think about network integrity with MELs, CAT II/III operations, pilot rest/fatigue, etc. Remember Germanwings 9525. Consider risk evaluation/mitigation and potential legal liability concerns. And finally, think about what will be the single biggest obstacle to national/international regulatory approval - politics.
I don't believe we'll see single pilot Part 25 widebody cargo jets operating for 121 carriers in my career, or even my lifetime; if we start seeing single pilot C17s going into warzones, perhaps I'll recalibrate but Uncle Sugar accepts more risk than Fortune 100 corporations do. I do believe an attempt to stretch when an IRO or double crew is required per regulation is more likely, but still don't see going below 2 required crewmembers in the next number of decades.
Airline operators stand to save significantly more money with reduction in pilot capacity than Ipads or most other recent cockpit tech innovations. Network reliability should increase eventually with fewer pilots as well. Things happen faster when motivated parties are the ones holding the cards. Situations such as Germanwings and MH371 have proven that rogue pilots can be successful in spite of the two man cockpit. Consider the implications of real time ground monitoring and the ability to override the pilot in such an event. Also consider a situation such as with AF447. A ground based team of pilots and specialists who is monitoring aircraft parameters could quickly assist and in extreme cases override a frozen pilot who has lost SA, effectively transplanting the most competent system matter experts into the cockpit on demand.