Well, sorry I didn't say "soon" as I didn't feel it worth getting into specific retirement predictions. I said "in the next decade". Last time I saw a fleet plan slide back in 2023, it projected four WB retirements in 2025. If this stands, and with delivery delays I'm not sure it will, I'd say it's a pretty safe assumption it will happen after the summer high season and the retirees will be some of our oldest 767-300ERs. They were delivered in 1991-1992, so around 34 years old. The oldest flying 777 in the world, 774UA rolled off the assembly line in July 1994, so 30 years ago. If I were to hazard a genuine guess, I'd say we see the first few A models get retired sometime after the 2028 high season. That "sometime after" could be a few years after 2028 for all I know, people with sharp pencils will figure out if that is economically viable. Once the early A models go, keep in mind roughly half of our 200ERs were delivered in 1997-1998, so they will be hitting 34 years old well inside "the next decade."

As for 787-10s, well, I'd expect them to replace 200ERs on quite a few midrange seasonal routes without much cargo demand. Allows for some upgauging without leaving any cargo behind. Examples? SFO-CDG/AMS/BCN plus LHR year round. Not much cargo to FCO or ZRH either, but I'm not sure if the 10 has the range/performance. The 787-9 definitely has it though, with much better fuel burn and only at the cost of 19 seats. I'd expect the ERs to stay on SFO-FRA and longer Asia routes a long time, lots of year round cargo. Meanwhile, the 787-10 can easily cover all EWR/IAD/IAH 777 flying to Europe, cargo and all.

Anyways, I took a glance yesterday and noticed ANZ and JAL are getting rid of their 777-300ERs (9 and 13 aircraft respectively). Middle aged, well maintained, and still with plenty of life left in them. We'll see. Tough to imagine getting any non-ER 300s for cattle car conversion when the first A models get parked since we have plenty of later delivery B/C model feedstock available (2001-2002 deliveries).