Originally Posted by
CLazarus
Well, sorry I didn't say "soon" as I didn't feel it worth getting into specific retirement predictions. I said "in the next decade". Last time I saw a fleet plan slide back in 2023, it projected four WB retirements in 2025. If this stands, and with delivery delays I'm not sure it will, I'd say it's a pretty safe assumption it will happen after the summer high season and the retirees will be some of our oldest 767-300ERs. They were delivered in 1991-1992, so around 34 years old. The oldest flying 777 in the world, 774UA rolled off the assembly line in July 1994, so 30 years ago. If I were to hazard a genuine guess, I'd say we see the first few A models get retired sometime after the 2028 high season. That "sometime after" could be a few years after 2028 for all I know, people with sharp pencils will figure out if that is economically viable. Once the early A models go, keep in mind roughly half of our 200ERs were delivered in 1997-1998, so they will be hitting 34 years old well inside "the next decade."
As for 787-10s, well, I'd expect them to replace 200ERs on quite a few midrange seasonal routes without much cargo demand. Allows for some upgauging without leaving any cargo behind. Examples? SFO-CDG/AMS/BCN plus LHR year round. Not much cargo to FCO or ZRH either, but I'm not sure if the 10 has the range/performance. The 787-9 definitely has it though, with much better fuel burn and only at the cost of 19 seats. I'd expect the ERs to stay on SFO-FRA and longer Asia routes a long time, lots of year round cargo. Meanwhile, the 787-10 can easily cover all EWR/IAD/IAH 777 flying to Europe, cargo and all.
Anyways, I took a glance yesterday and noticed ANZ and JAL are getting rid of their 777-300ERs (9 and 13 aircraft respectively). Middle aged, well maintained, and still with plenty of life left in them. We'll see. Tough to imagine getting any non-ER 300s for cattle car conversion when the first A models get parked since we have plenty of later delivery B/C model feedstock available (2001-2002 deliveries).
All good points. Who knows when Boeing will get their act together and actually build some planes.
One small point. Our oldest 777 is 777UA. It was part of the flight test fleet and built in 1994. It was always a UAL plane, but delivery was delayed while it was still in flight test. The airworthiness certifcate says 1995, that was when Boeing delivered it to UAL. So, 777UA is the oldest 777 flying.