Originally Posted by FangsF15

Not directing this at you two, but these posts illustrate a point that needs to be made. Analyzing career progression based on what has happened in the past, of even what it currently takes to hold X is absolutely irrelevant. Especially given the crazy ups/downs of the Covid/Covid Recovery era. Way too many crazy examples over the last few years to use any of that data in your analysis.

The question prospective NH should be asking themselves is this: How long will it take you to reach X if you get hired tomorrow (or in 6 months if you haven't even applied yet...) At least for DL, fully 2/3 of the list has been hired in the last 10 years. And in just the last 3 years, DL has hired 6400 pilots. We have 1200 pilots under 30, and over 3000 under 35.

There is simply no realistic way to predict what 10 years will bring, much less 25. While we are predicted to hire ~1000/year 'for the forseeable future' (i.e.3-4 years), obviously none of that is guaranteed, but it's hard to imagine a scenario where it would be greater than that. Furthermore, as hiring returns to 'normal', everything you can do will get more senior. We have already seen NB A get progressively more senior with each of the last 4-5 bids. After nearly a year of a pretty stable ~87% to hold plug Captain, it has now progressed to the low 80's (and one outlier bid in the low 70's). And that's just to be the plug. If you want to have even a few folks beneath you, the slope is pretty steep at those lower %'s. And again, that will get more senior by the time you could get there...

FWIW, to the OP, while you certainly have a much better grasp on what's going on at SWA than anyone here, It's really hard to imagine that Elliott Mgmt's involvement will liquidate SWA. It may be a rough year or two, but SWA will be fine in the bigger picture. There would have to be a really compelling reason to leave to give up being top 200 at retirement there. You will be nowhere close to that at DL. Only you can answer these questions. Good luck.