I’m finishing my tenth year at WN this winter. According to my
seniority.com:
Captains retiring that are senior to you:
within 12 months - 167
within 2 years - 426
within 3 years - 724
within 5 years - 1382
within 10 years - 3070
within 15 years - 4617
This is the current snapshot/ outlook. I retire in 2040 at 7% and it took me 8.5 years to upgrade.
Historically, the majors always hired until they furloughed. No company is immune. I feel the industry is going towards a more normal hiring trend until the Boeing issue is resolved; maybe it will pick up again then.
All I can say is do your research with factual information, not feelings. If you chase the greener grass to start at the bottom again it’s still a gamble.