Originally Posted by
Macjet
Neeleman thinks a F9/NK tieup is likely. The even worse news is that he forecasts NK pilot pay being brought down to F9 levels.
Originally Posted by
SSlow
Nah, there would not be an airline left to run with the amount of legacy hiring going on over the next few years.
The legacies will happily orchestrate a mass exodus and run them out of business.
Yes that would be my take.
While it's remotely possible they could switch to the regional model (hire CFI's and rely on a small cadre of older lifers), that model got stretched to the breaking point at the regionals over the last few years and was intentionally saved by several factors...
1. The legacies WANT the regionals to survive and thrive.
2. The legacies subsidized massive pilot raises at the regionals.
3. The legacies metered hiring from their own affiliates by various mechanisms.
4. The herd got culled in 2020, with several regionals being intentionally liquidated.
A ULCC has none of that going for them (quite the opposite for #1) and would need to compensate pilots in the ballpark of the legacy NB rates. As long as they're in the ballpark, they should be able to retain folks who want a botique domicile, folks who get busy with life before they get called up, or are just happy enough where they are. But that probably doesn't work at 60% legacy rates.
TLDR: They will have to pay NK, F9/NK, B6/NK pilots reasonable rates however things tie up. They might get to coast on contracts for a year or three if the economy and/or boeing remain slow.