Originally Posted by ToiletDuck

This probably won't be a popular post but I don't think we'll see as many furloughs at the regional and legacy level as many of you are thinking of and here are my reasons why.

First off we need to take into consideration the regional/major airlines that are going/have gone down. The industry could only support "X" amount of pilots in the current market. At least with the way business is being done. So far we've already seen thousands of pilots have the doors closed in their faces. We've had Skybus, ATA, EOS, Skyway, etc. already close up shop. Currently on the chopping blocks are Mesa and XJT though two completely different setups. With the closure of Mesa and the expected 700 furloughs as XJT that is another 1300ish pilots who are unfortunately released from their jobs.

All together that is a lot of business already sitting on the streets. Midwest is expected to follow shortly which could add additional relief to the industry, *note* that I'm not talking about the pilots but the industry.

With Mesa gone there's more UAL flying. XJT brings CAL flying, possibly DAL, with Skybus and ATA gone and possibly Midwest on it's way I feel we'll actually see growth at the regional level and possibly even on the major level. I feel the worst has passed on the Legacy level. It will just take a little time to filter through the system. New routes have to be analyzed, more efficient aircraft added to fleets, etc. The DAL/NWA merger is a great big step in the right direction as far as the grand scheme of things goes. There is still a large market that exists overseas for these guys that hasn't been tapped near as much as it could be.

My prediction is growth at the Major level for AMR(pulling pilots out of furlough), CAL(more domestic flying), and DAL/NWA(more international flying), SWA(routes picked up from others who didn't make it due to higher cost structure), with stagnation appearing at US Air and United. I think we'll see a decrease in flying from Air Tran, Allegiant, Spirit, and other airlines with a grasp on the weaker markets.

On the regional level I see greater use of larger regional aircraft. The value with the feeders is just that. Feeding the major lines. Not actually producing profit though it would be nice. Getting the pax to Houston so he can take the $1500 trip to Europe is where the money is. Given a little time I'm willing to bet you'll see an increase in flying from SKYW, RAH, Comair, PNCL, AE, Colgan, Mesaba, TSA/GoJet, Piedmont, PSA, and possibly Compass. XJT, Mesa, Air Whiskey, and Horizon I expect to see decreases in flying.

Personally I think CAL is sitting in the best Legacy position and feel that, unfortunately, Colgan is positioned to get a large boost in business with the Q400.