Begin rant:

The "you might get furloughed if you switch companies" fear is just overblown. 100% overblown. It's fighting the last war and yes there's plenty of war strories from the lost decade but that battle is over.

Pre 9/11 you had SEVEN major airlines that all ran about 60% load factor, had a lot of three pilot airplanes and still had contracts that werern't much changed from pre-deregulation days. In the 15 years following 9/11 you had

9/11 ... duh
the great recession
age 65
retrirement of 3 pilot aircraft
multiple rounds of bankruptcies and mergers that GREATLY increased pilot efficiency (ie decreased pilot demand)

You now have 3 airlines, all running 85% load factor, with two pilot planes and relatively efficient contracts. Until they can run an airplane without two pilots seated (and I think that's coming) things are gonna be ok. There are not huge, low-hanging structural changes to be made that will crater demand for pilots for a decade. Furloughs, if they come, are likely to be short and won't come close to negating the advanteages of 25+ years with a top-tier contract.

End rant