Originally Posted by
FL370esq
All about perspective my friend. For all the reasons you listed, it most certainly took those of us hired in 2000-2001 that long to make and hold Captain. Just a fact. We didn't choose to wait to be top 20%. That's when our "wall" fell and that wall didn't include 7ER. It was B717 and M88 and, eventually, the B737 and A320. Categories will probably trend more senior now as hiring slows and aircraft get parked like the B717, A320 and B767. It's a cycle...but no one wants to believe that anymore. History is so last year and irrelevant. This industry is replete with booms and busts. We have been in an epic boom but that won't last. Things will slow...not necessarily precipitating a furlough but it will slow and maybe even regress through some contraction. It always has. Then maybe your "norm" will reset.
I completely agree with everything you said. My (poorly articulated?) point was that those hired in 2000-2001 had an abnormally long wait for captain.
Similarly, those few who got the award while on probation is also abnormal. We have already seen “time” go back “up”.
As hiring slows to “average” rates for the last decade of ~1000/yr, the
time it takes will naturally be longer (which is why many argue it’s a poor indicator, while % is much more stable). Even then, I suspect the % will settle a little senior to where it has been over most of the last 18 months. I’m guessing lower 80’s%. Ish.