Unless you specifically quantify it - "First upgrade available sytem wide" etc, upgrade times are somewhat subjective. Would a pilot living in SOCAL and waiting for the first available LAX upgrade be considered to be voluntarily skipping upgrade if he does not bid NYC?

Upgrade times are always changing but IMHO will start trending toward 5-10 years. If GS opportunities for senior FOs dry up it will be closer to 10 years. If GSs stay mostly available for senior FOs it will be closer to 5.

Plenty of senior FOs figure why go to the left seat and lose contol over your schedule if you are not going to make much more, or in some cases any more money?

Scoop