Originally Posted by
windshearmaxthr
How overmanned are we? Good question. I don’t think the company has officially said. Along with any really helpful information. Pretty much every communication from them is vague to the limit.
Even if we don’t get a TA in 3 years (extremely unlikely IMO), there will still be early retirements, how many is anyone’s guess.
You are also assuming 0 new flying.
Just observations.
First, there have been numbers published. They said we were overmanned by 700 in the summer of '23. They said that the loss of USPS flying would add 500 to the overmanned situation. The union says we loose about 20 pilots a month due to retirement and resignation. That would put us somewhere around 800 overmanned according to the numbers published. According to the SAM, we are at least 500 overmanned. So the info is out there if you are willing to look at it.
Who said it will take 3 years from now to get a TA? What I said is that when a TA gets ratified, if there isn't an improvement for those who can retire, then they will probably stick around.
You seem to be leaning on the far side of the spectrum that we will have mass retirements, and increase in business over the next 3 years. I am just pointing out the other side of the spectrum. What happens will probably be in the middle. We will see. However, if you are junior, or living pay check to pay check, I would start planning for that rainy day just in case.